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Intermediate Trendlines

Menunggu gajah disaat-saat menengangkan. terbentuk 2 trendlines, downtrend will remain intact... :-? trend up akan dimulai...

Retracement GBP/JPY

Terlihat kemungkinan perjalanan gajah ke fibo 50.0% , pas ditahanan trendline tersebut akan melakukan retrace yg cukup dalam mungkin, karena dari kemaren tak mampu menembus level minor trendline. Karena keadaan perekonomian dunia yg sedang gonjang ganjing maka market ikut gilaaaaaaaa....

Double Bottom GBP/JPY

Yihaaaaa,,,,, GBP/JPY membentuk Double bottom, apakah pertanda trend akan berbalik arah??? tanya mengapa??? wekekekek....

Kemungkinan besar jika titik high minggu kemaren terlampauhi, maka si gajah akan melakukan aksi naik-naik kepuncak gunung. Look 195.66 if will be done, so it`s maybe running to 204.xx & target looked 206.xx in this week.

Udah yaaa.... selamat trading dan sukses... mau cari buka puasa dulu... hicks :D

GBP/JPY still Bearish or Bullish?

Gajah ooh Gajah... mau kemana dikau... hicks!!! Tidak kuatkah gajah tembus titik minor trendline dan High untuk hari kemaren?!? Gajah akan melakukan aksi Bearish jika titik-titik tersebut tak mampu dia lewati. tapi jika lepas bisa-bisa gajah mau nongkrong di 192.75. tetap waspada :D

Desending Triangle GBP/JPY

Bona terlihat membuat desending triangle, yang kemungkinan besar masih akan melanjutkan perjalan turun gunungnya, siapkan amunisi untuk siap SELL di titik 188.87 dan ambil take profit di price low jum`at kemaren sekitar 186.17, ambil 200 - 260 point saja. sudah bisa buat beli baju lebaran. hehehe...

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Candlestick Chart

Candlestick adalah jenis chart yang paling sering digunakan. Dengan candlestick chart kita dapat dengan mudah membaca kondisi pasar. Sebenarnya candle juga bisa memberikan kuputusan order dalam bertrading.

Selanjutnya silahkan dibaca

Forex Market Commentary

The dollar slumped on the first trading day of 2008 on news that the manufacturing ISM contracted to 47.7 in December from 50.8 in November. The exception to the rule was the pound, which remained under selling pressure on concerns over a rate cut. The dollar should attempt to recover while the market is looking for direction, but take your cues from the ADP data, the oil prices and the carry trades.


Euro/dollar


Euro/dollar rallied on Wednesday to fully recover its Monday’s losses and matched that day’s high. Today should see some attempt of a pull back, but the risk is on the upside because of cross trading.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.4640. This is followed by 1.4570 and 1.4520. A break below 1.4470 would infer a test of the distant support at 1.4390.

Initial resistance is seen at 1.4750. The next level is 1.4800. Distant resistance follows at 1.4885.

Oscillators are mixed.


NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen


With the carry trades on the ropes, dollar/yen fell further on Wednesday to reach its lowest levels seen since November 28. It should trade sideways today.

Initial support remains at 111.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 112.10 and 111.10. .

Immediate resistance is at 112.55. Strong resistance follows at 112.90 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 113.40 and 112.40 in place at 113.85.

Oscillators are falling.


NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar


Sterling/dollar fell further on Wednesday, a day when the other European currencies rallied, following a soft manufacturing PMI report. Cable should now consolidate.

Initial resistance is at 1.9900 and then at 1.9945. Above 2.0000, the next level to deal with is at 2.0055. Distant resistance follows at 2.0260.

Immediate support comes at 1.9745. Further support is pegged at 1.9698 from a pivot low.

Oscillators are mixed.


NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc


As I suspected, dollar/Swiss’ recovery on Monday was too misguided but Wednesday’s slide surpassed expectations. The pair sank to its lowest level since November 29 and this pressure may continue, albeit at a reduced pace. A high-risk medium-term trade may be buying GBP/CHF because the cross is grossly oversold.

Below 1.1150, support is seen at 1.1060. A distant support is pegged at 1.0890 from a pivot low.

Initial resistance comes at 1.1250. Above 1.1330, distant resistance comes at 1.1415 and 1.1525.

Oscillators are declining.


NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly lower
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

EURO - USD chart

EUR/USD 2008

Selling US dollars was one of the best trades of 2007. Since the beginning of the year, the dollar has fallen as much as 13 percent against the Euro, 10 percent against the Japanese Yen and 8.5 percent against the British pound. The story of the dollar's weakness also captured headlines around the world. It became so pronounced that supermodel Gisele announced her preference for being paid in Euros over dollars while rapper Jay-Z flashed Euros and not dollars in his new music video. Everyone from our barbers to our bartenders has been asking us when the US dollar will bottom and just when that happened - the dollar's slide came to a screeching halt. The question now is will the turn in the dollar last or will the weakness resume in the coming year?

Recoupling Could Mean the End to Dollar Weakness

Before exploring the outlook for the US dollar in 2008, it is important to understand that decoupling in the global economy was a primary factor for the dollar's weakness in 2007. As US growth slowed, growth in the rest of the world remained resilient thanks to the demand from countries like China, India and the Middle East. When the US began to ease interest rates in August, many central banks in countries such like Australia continued to raise rates since growth was steady enough for them to focus on tackling inflation. In fact, up until the Bank of England's and Bank of Canada's interest rate cut in December, the US was the only central bank to cut interest rates in 2007. This decoupling of growth was one of the main factors that led to the out performance of the Euro, Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars, against the US dollar last year.

As we enter 2008, we are beginning to see recoupling in the global economy. In second half of last year, the expansion in the UK and Canada began to slow materially as economic data weakened, indicating that these countries were no longer resilient to weaker US growth. The ripple effects of the US subprime crisis has impacted many countries, especially the UK, who has relied on housing, finance and the public sector for growth over the past few years. Chinks in the armor are also beginning to show in the Eurozone despite the central bank's persistently hawkish monetary policy stance. If growth slows even further in the US or the other countries, the central banks that have been reluctant to ease rates last year may be forced to do so. The UK for example has already cut rates and they are expected to again in 2008. These are where the surprise elements lie for the currency market because the Federal Reserve has already cut interest rates by 100bp this past year. Another rate cut from them will not be much of a surprise, but if the Eurozone begins to cut interest rates as well, it would mark a significant shift in monetary policy, which in turn could result in a major shift to the outlook for the currency.

US: Recession or No Recession?

Global growth in 2008 is also dependent upon whether the US economy falls into a recession, which will be the big debate of 2008. Over half of the American public believes that we are already in a recession according to a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released in December. This view is shared by Pimco's Bill Gross who thinks that we fell into a recession in December and that it should last for the next four to five months. Economists however beg to differ. Out of 54 economists surveyed by Business Week in December, only 2 expect the US economy to fall into a recession. As a group, they believe that on average, the US economy will grow by 2.1 percent from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the end of 2008 versus 2.6 percent growth in 2007. This does not mean that times may not be difficult in 2008, especially in the first half of the year because even though consumer spending is not stopping, it is certainly slowing. The labor market has held steady, while average hourly earnings have increased. Even though energy prices are high, the threat of $100 oil is easing. The forecast that the US economy will not fall into a recession is predicated on the belief that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates. We still expect more losses in the subprime sector and the Federal Reserve's commitment to easing will be needed to help restore confidence. Realistically, no one expects the problems in the credit market to just disappear, but if the Fed is on the case, then the US economy has a good chance of recovering next year.

Weekly Forecast

EUR/USD (1.4427) – Weekly Forecast
Weekly forecast levels: 1.4190/1.4580
Trend for the week – Downward/Neutral
Market Focus: The main news is the high US inflation that would not allow to the Fed to make new interest rates cut. The key news in the coming week are the reports for the US Housing Starts and Building Permits that probably will send new bad signals for the US housing sector. GDP-Final is the other key economic event in the coming week.
Weekly Strategy: The high US inflation cut the Fed expectations for new interest rates cut in January 2008. This report together with the long-time expected correction of the dollar start on Friday with high dollar recovery. During the coming week the forecast is that the dollar will try to continue with the gains from the recent week especially from Friday. The dollar has the power to recovery to levels of 1.42xx against the euro in the coming week. The news that will send negative signals for the dollar is the expecting housing reports for the world biggest economy.

Euro/dollar held below the 20-day moving average and hit a 1 ½-month low on Friday. It probably is on the verge of starting a significant downtrend but the confirmation would come only from a close below 1.4250,. In addition, there is a head-and-shoulders formation targeting 1.4085.

Immediate support is at 1.4354. A break below this Fibonacci retracement level would suggest a test of 1.4290. Below 1.4250, euro/dollar has good support at 1.4165.

Initial resistance is seen at 1.4525. Above 1.4635, strong resistance is seen at 1.4750.

Strong Sell for EURO/USD

EURO/USD telah memulai pergerakan down untuk akhir tahun ini, dari R1 1.4776, R2 1.4895 dan break di area 1.4648 EURO/USD akan meneruskan perjalanannya ke S1 1.4532 berlanjut S2 1.4407 di akhir-akhir ini.

Our favored count is playing out. We wrote yesterday to “remain bearish for the drop to the 1.4400’s against 1.4750.” Price has plummeted below 1.4500 and the next level of potential support is the confluence of the 38.2% of 1.3360-1.4966 at 1.4353 and where C = A at 1.4306.

Dan hati-hati untuk yang mempunyai floating buy di EURO/USD di atas area 1.46xx karena kemungkinan besar EURO/USD akan terjun lagi untuk melengkapi wave C yang terletak di area 1.43xx. Kami akan meletakkan target last di 1.4360 di akhir tahun ini. US Dollar akan menguat untuk akhir tahun ini, karena diperkirakan dari semua negara besar akan membayar hutang ekonomi ke US.

Persiapakan pasang strong sell untuk pair EURO/USD ini. Setelah perjalanan panjang EURO/USD tidak dapat menembus new level di bulan-bulan ini. hanya break di last area 1.4966. Dan dari sini lah EURO/USD akan membawa price turun lagi.

The dollar dilemma

The euro is the best alternative to the dollar, but its rising strength is posing a problem for Europe.

The credit market is not the only thing worrying central bankers right now — so is the external value of the dollar, which recently fell as low as $1.50 to a euro. At its lowest, the euro was worth just 83 cents (October 2000); from that point, it has appreciated about 80 per cent, and is currently even higher than the all-time peak of the legacy German currency, the Deutsche mark, at DEM 1.35 (April 1995). The dollar has also fallen sharply against the currencies of other major trading partners like Canada and Britain, but not very much against the two major Asian currencies, the Japanese yen and the Chinese yuan. The yen has strengthened as a result of the unwinding of carry trades, but remains susceptible to the extremely low domestic interest rates persuading residents to invest abroad in higher yielding currencies. The yuan continues its deliberately slow, managed appreciation, so as to keep the economy competitive and increase employment opportunities.

The dollar’s movements against individual currencies apart, its steady depreciation in recent years in trade-weighted index terms was perhaps inevitable given the huge and unsustainable deficit on the current account. From its peak in 2002, the dollar index has dropped around 40 per cent and the result is being seen in an improvement in the current account deficit — from 6.5 per cent of GDP last year, it is likely to fall to about 4 per cent of GDP next year. This improvement, coming when the oil price remains near $100 per barrel, would suggest that at the current level of the dollar’s exchange rate, the US economy has become much more competitive globally and a further fall may not really be needed for bringing the external deficit down to sustainable levels. While this may be so, one should not forget that market prices are driven far more by liquidity (that is, demand and supply) than by fundamentals.

The big two Asian central banks (China and Japan), as also the central banks of the oil exporters, have a major interest in a stable to strong dollar. China’s reserves are within handshaking distance of $1.5 trillion and any further fall of the dollar would mean significant translation losses while measuring the reserves in any other currency. No wonder Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, told a conference in Singapore a couple of weeks back: “We have never been experiencing such big pressure...We are worried about how to preserve the value of our reserves.” (Presently, something like 65 per cent of the reserves held by central banks worldwide are in the US currency, as compared to 71 per cent five years back.) Successive US Treasury Secretaries have always claimed that a strong dollar is in the interest of the US; at a G-20 meeting in South Africa recently, the Chinese whole-heartedly supported the avowed American policy!

The OPEC countries, with their growing hoard, are not only worried about maintaining the global purchasing power of the reserves, but also about another factor: since the currencies of many of them are pegged to the dollar, the American currency’s fall is “importing” inflation in these countries since they import a lot of goods from Europe and other countries. To mitigate this problem, Kuwait has de-linked its currency from the dollar, and others are considering alternatives at a Gulf Cooperation Council meeting today. Political opponents of the US like Iran and Venezuela are actively advocating the pricing of oil in non-dollar currencies. Saudi Arabia, the largest OPEC producer and an American ally, is opposed to changing the pricing currency. However, for countries like Iran and Venezuela (and even Russia), the change would have obvious political attractions. The next big downward move for the dollar could well depend on this.

There is, of course, another imponderable: will central banks start diversifying reserves into non-dollar currencies to protect their value? Surely, the answer to the question has to be in the affirmative. However, it is most unlikely that the diversification would take the form of changing the present composition of the stock of reserves: done on any scale, even 10 per cent, this would surely precipitate a sharp dollar fall. Chances are, therefore, that the diversification would be achieved gradually, over a period, through investment of the fresh flows of reserves. In the present state of the global financial markets, the only possible alternative to the dollar, for holding a large amount of reserves, is the euro. The EU is a bigger economy than the US; the euro-denominated international debt issues now exceed those denominated in the dollar; and there is a deep and liquid bond market in the euro. But European economies are finding it difficult to cope with the existing strength of the euro; any further appreciation would surely worsen growth and employment prospects.

Economic data

· Economic Data

· SP Aug Hotel Price Index Y/Y: 3.9% v 3.3% prior

· UK Aug Public Finances: £5.0B v £3.5Be || Prior revised to -£13.2B from -£13.1B

· UK Aug Public Sector Net Borrowing: £9.1B v £6.5Be || Prior revised to -£6.3B from -£6.5B

· EU July Industrial New Orders: M/M -4.0% v -3.0%e || Y/Y 10.9% v 10.2%e

· Speakers/Comments

· IMF Rato: Strong currencies have advantages but face competitiveness pressures

· IMF Rato: Change Credit market impact will be felt most in 2008; US to take hardest hit

· IMF Rato: 2008 world growth will remain high, but will fall below levels seen in 2006 and 2007

· IMF Rato: Risks to growth are on the downside, but increase the longer that the crisis goes on

· Commodities

· Goldman Sachs: Forecasts gold at $775/oz in 3 months

· Goldman Sachs: Forecasts gold at $800/oz in 6 months

· Goldman Sachs: Forecasts gold at $750/oz in 12 months

· Merrill Lynch: Oil prices could top $100/barrel in the near term

· Merrill Lynch: Merrill Lynch: Oil prices could top $100/barrel in the near term

· Fixed Income/FX

· EUR/USD: Hits new all time high

· EUR Itailian European affairs Min says EU Summit will discuss the strength of the Euro at its Oct 18th meeting

· BE Sells €1.015B in 4.00% March 2013 OLO 50s with an average yield of 4.317% and a bid-to-cover of 2.266x (vs. 1.53x prior)

· BE Sells €1.345B in 4.00% March 2017 OLO 49s with an average yield of 4.51% and a bid-to-cover of 2.342x (vs. 2.01x prior)

· BE Sells €975M in 5.50% March 2028 March OLO 31s with an average yield of 4.754% and a bid-to-cover of 2.779x (vs. 2.90x prior)

· Asian Data Post Asian Close

· Indian Ministry of Commerce Official: India should not curb the Rupee's appreciation

· * Note that many of the major Asian indices were on holiday today *

Jadikah EUR/USD mencapai 1.5000?

Apakah EUR/USD bisa menembus level baru yaitu 1.5000?
Ini lah yang dinamakan pergerakan harga, antara buyer dan seller mempunyai typical yang berbeda-beda. Tetapi diperkirakan US dollar akan melemah pada akhir tahun ini, jika US dollar terus melemah, kemungkinan EUR/USD akan benar-benar menembus level baru di 1.5000. Naiknya harga Euro bukan karena jumlah permintaan banyak, hal ini dipengaruhi US dollar yang semakin terpuruk dan Pasar di Amerika (USD) masih terus melemah dan diperkirakan bisa sampai Desember ini atau lebih.

Untuk yang memiliki posisi floating sell di harga yang jauh dibawah untuk berhati-hati, EUR/USD akan terus naik hingga harga US dollar kembali normal dan stabil.