Candlestick Chart

Candlestick adalah jenis chart yang paling sering digunakan. Dengan candlestick chart kita dapat dengan mudah membaca kondisi pasar. Sebenarnya candle juga bisa memberikan kuputusan order dalam bertrading.

Selanjutnya silahkan dibaca

Forex Market Commentary

The dollar slumped on the first trading day of 2008 on news that the manufacturing ISM contracted to 47.7 in December from 50.8 in November. The exception to the rule was the pound, which remained under selling pressure on concerns over a rate cut. The dollar should attempt to recover while the market is looking for direction, but take your cues from the ADP data, the oil prices and the carry trades.


Euro/dollar


Euro/dollar rallied on Wednesday to fully recover its Monday’s losses and matched that day’s high. Today should see some attempt of a pull back, but the risk is on the upside because of cross trading.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.4640. This is followed by 1.4570 and 1.4520. A break below 1.4470 would infer a test of the distant support at 1.4390.

Initial resistance is seen at 1.4750. The next level is 1.4800. Distant resistance follows at 1.4885.

Oscillators are mixed.


NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen


With the carry trades on the ropes, dollar/yen fell further on Wednesday to reach its lowest levels seen since November 28. It should trade sideways today.

Initial support remains at 111.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 112.10 and 111.10. .

Immediate resistance is at 112.55. Strong resistance follows at 112.90 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 113.40 and 112.40 in place at 113.85.

Oscillators are falling.


NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar


Sterling/dollar fell further on Wednesday, a day when the other European currencies rallied, following a soft manufacturing PMI report. Cable should now consolidate.

Initial resistance is at 1.9900 and then at 1.9945. Above 2.0000, the next level to deal with is at 2.0055. Distant resistance follows at 2.0260.

Immediate support comes at 1.9745. Further support is pegged at 1.9698 from a pivot low.

Oscillators are mixed.


NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc


As I suspected, dollar/Swiss’ recovery on Monday was too misguided but Wednesday’s slide surpassed expectations. The pair sank to its lowest level since November 29 and this pressure may continue, albeit at a reduced pace. A high-risk medium-term trade may be buying GBP/CHF because the cross is grossly oversold.

Below 1.1150, support is seen at 1.1060. A distant support is pegged at 1.0890 from a pivot low.

Initial resistance comes at 1.1250. Above 1.1330, distant resistance comes at 1.1415 and 1.1525.

Oscillators are declining.


NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly lower
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

EURO - USD chart

EUR/USD 2008

Selling US dollars was one of the best trades of 2007. Since the beginning of the year, the dollar has fallen as much as 13 percent against the Euro, 10 percent against the Japanese Yen and 8.5 percent against the British pound. The story of the dollar's weakness also captured headlines around the world. It became so pronounced that supermodel Gisele announced her preference for being paid in Euros over dollars while rapper Jay-Z flashed Euros and not dollars in his new music video. Everyone from our barbers to our bartenders has been asking us when the US dollar will bottom and just when that happened - the dollar's slide came to a screeching halt. The question now is will the turn in the dollar last or will the weakness resume in the coming year?

Recoupling Could Mean the End to Dollar Weakness

Before exploring the outlook for the US dollar in 2008, it is important to understand that decoupling in the global economy was a primary factor for the dollar's weakness in 2007. As US growth slowed, growth in the rest of the world remained resilient thanks to the demand from countries like China, India and the Middle East. When the US began to ease interest rates in August, many central banks in countries such like Australia continued to raise rates since growth was steady enough for them to focus on tackling inflation. In fact, up until the Bank of England's and Bank of Canada's interest rate cut in December, the US was the only central bank to cut interest rates in 2007. This decoupling of growth was one of the main factors that led to the out performance of the Euro, Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars, against the US dollar last year.

As we enter 2008, we are beginning to see recoupling in the global economy. In second half of last year, the expansion in the UK and Canada began to slow materially as economic data weakened, indicating that these countries were no longer resilient to weaker US growth. The ripple effects of the US subprime crisis has impacted many countries, especially the UK, who has relied on housing, finance and the public sector for growth over the past few years. Chinks in the armor are also beginning to show in the Eurozone despite the central bank's persistently hawkish monetary policy stance. If growth slows even further in the US or the other countries, the central banks that have been reluctant to ease rates last year may be forced to do so. The UK for example has already cut rates and they are expected to again in 2008. These are where the surprise elements lie for the currency market because the Federal Reserve has already cut interest rates by 100bp this past year. Another rate cut from them will not be much of a surprise, but if the Eurozone begins to cut interest rates as well, it would mark a significant shift in monetary policy, which in turn could result in a major shift to the outlook for the currency.

US: Recession or No Recession?

Global growth in 2008 is also dependent upon whether the US economy falls into a recession, which will be the big debate of 2008. Over half of the American public believes that we are already in a recession according to a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released in December. This view is shared by Pimco's Bill Gross who thinks that we fell into a recession in December and that it should last for the next four to five months. Economists however beg to differ. Out of 54 economists surveyed by Business Week in December, only 2 expect the US economy to fall into a recession. As a group, they believe that on average, the US economy will grow by 2.1 percent from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the end of 2008 versus 2.6 percent growth in 2007. This does not mean that times may not be difficult in 2008, especially in the first half of the year because even though consumer spending is not stopping, it is certainly slowing. The labor market has held steady, while average hourly earnings have increased. Even though energy prices are high, the threat of $100 oil is easing. The forecast that the US economy will not fall into a recession is predicated on the belief that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates. We still expect more losses in the subprime sector and the Federal Reserve's commitment to easing will be needed to help restore confidence. Realistically, no one expects the problems in the credit market to just disappear, but if the Fed is on the case, then the US economy has a good chance of recovering next year.